Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Abstract: Through an empirical analysis of a panel dataset from 1980-1999, we investigate the extent to which fragility is related to conflict in general, and conflict-related state failure in particular. Implicitly in doing so we will investigate the extent to which fragility and conflict constitute distinct analytical concepts, with different symptoms and causes. Though fragile states may indeed experience conflict, and states experiencing conflict may well be fragile, such is not always the case. Fragile states may be relatively peaceful by most measures, and states may experience grinding low-intensity conflict over an extended period of time without becoming fragile by most definitions. It is our contention that the two are distinct groups, with fragile states the more general, and arguably currently the more policy relevant of the two. Conflict prevention obviously is and will remain an important goal of international policy, but fragile states constitute a broader suite of policy challenges, ranging from economic development, to the interdiction of communicable disease, to the prevention of international terrorism and to struggles with international criminal networks.