Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Abstract: In the past, any serious attempt to conclude some legal commitment among Middle East states to "No First Use” (NFU) of nuclear weapons was doomed to failure due to anticipated strong Israeli objections. At present, however, given the strong indications – and Israeli leadership’s confidence – that Iran is 'going nuclear', coupled with its president's inflammatory speeches, exploration and moderation of this policy within Israel is more likely should the issue emerge on the international agenda. Given that Arab scholars (e.g., Mohamed Kadry Said, 2002) perceive such a commitment (including Chemical & Biological Weapons ) as the first in a three-phase program designed to create a Middle East WMD Free Zone (WMDFZ, a goal that Israel also supports in principle), present circumstances appears to open a window of opportunity for such a step. This is the case as Iran, while publicly denying an attempt to "go nuclear" (with respect to weapons), has made clear its objection to the use of nuclear weapons under any circumstances. Its November 1995 Oral Statement before the International Court of Justice (ICJ) during the oral pleadings in the Advisory Opinion over the “Legality of the Threat or Use of Nuclear Weapons,” as well as its 6-page written statement in June 1995 urging the ICJ to decide that nuclear weapons are indeed illegal weapons, are evidence of its stance. The paper reviews the respective parties' positions regarding such a step. Based on insights gained from the analysis of similar attempts to promote an NFU Treaty among the declared Nuclear Weapons States, the paper points to the pros and cons of its implementation in the Middle East. It acknowledges the major weaknesses of such a commitment (such as its inherent unverifiability as well as unenforceability, but primarily the lack of reliability when a state's supreme interests are indeed at stake). Nevertheless, these weaknesses are, in fact, the NFU Treaty strengths as they correspond to Israeli arguments against such a treaty. Hence, as argued by Arab scholars, the paper concludes that such an agreement indeed represents the first step in the right direction regarding establishment of a Middle East WMDFZ.