Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Abstract: This paper reviews selected concepts and empirical evidence from psychology and cognitive science about limitations in the way that individuals process information and make decisions, and applies these to early warning and response. Cognitive biases can exert influence on early warning by affecting the warning analyst’s judgments and/or the policymaker’s evaluation of warnings and decision about a response. Taken together, literature on cognitive biases suggests that warning analysis will tend to overestimate risks and policymakers will tend to resist calls for preventive action, preferring to risk a greater loss in the future rather than accept a certain one now. The paper then discusses possible strategies to minimize and manage the negative effects of cognitive biases on early warning. These strategies have yet to prove fully their ability to address fundamental cognitive biases in applied settings. The author concludes that additional research into the effectiveness of these strategies is important for designing and implementing more effective early warning systems.