Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Review Method: Peer Reviewed
Abstract: Taxes are raised frequently enough in the American
states so that increasing confidence should be vested in answers to the
questions of when and under what conditions gubernatorial candidates
face electoral retribution for increasing taxes. Aggregate analysis
(Kone and Winters 1993) and individual-level analysis of election exit
polls (Niemi, et al. 1995) have established weak negative impacts of
changing taxes on subsequent vote outcomes. Our research investigates
the tax-change impact on individual voting using exit polls in 228
elections from 1982-2000 with about 315,000 respondents. We hypothesize
conditions that affect the tax-vote
linkage. We find strong negative effects of changes in the sales tax on
vote choice, but little or no impact of changes in either the income
tax or “sin” taxes on the vote. Some other non-obvious findings of the
paper include: nonincumbent candidates of the “taxing party” are more
vulnerable than incumbents; voter retribution varies by party, tax, and
incumbency; the voter characteristic of higher incomes interacts
nonobviously with tax changes and the vote; party of voter seems not to
enhance punitive behavior, and, finally, given our measure of the
“fiscal health” of states, voters are more likely to punish “taxers” in
economically hard times.

Publication Type: Paper (prepared oral presentation)
Abstract: Although they approach the problem differently, both social psychologists and political scientists investigate the conditions under which people endorse the status quo or seek to change it. Given that the status quo is known to exert powerful effects on decision-making and voting behavior (e.g., the incumbency effect), we sought to identify motivational and linguistic frames that would reverse status quo bias. Drawing on Regulatory Focus Theory, which distinguishes between the motivation to maximize positive outcomes (i.e., promotion focus) and the motivation to minimize negative outcomes (i.e., prevention focus), we suggest that the risk aversion associated with a prevention focus should decrease when change is reframed as a necessary prerequisite to relief from a negative status quo. In terms of voting behavior, this reversal may manifest as change in preference for incumbents (vs. challengers), conservative (vs. liberal) candidates, or one’s own party (vs. the opposing party). In a natural experiment during the 2006 midterm elections, Congressional candidates represented different combinations of incumbency, ideology, and party membership. We manipulated regulatory focus and linguistic framing negativity before asking respondents to report liking for candidates and their parties. Results indicated that couching prevention focus in negativity led to increased liking for progressive candidates but had no effect on preference for conservative challengers. Additionally, we found that respondent partisanship changed the definition of the status quo: ratings of the parties were differentially affected by the manipulation, in line with the way Democrats, Republicans, and Independents are expected to conceptualize their party-level and system-level status quo.

Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Abstract: International institutions should reflect the distribution of power at the time of their creation, and they should evolve and change to reflect changes in that distribution of power over time. Realist IR theory explicitly expects such adaptation to be swift, virtually automatic, and nearly complete. Liberal and constructivist IR theories often lead to the same expectations, albeit arguably with a longer delay. Yet in practice, many international institutions fail to change in ways that would reflect the current distribution of power. Why? Theorizing institutions not just as structures, but themselves as agents/actors, this paper hopes to contribute to a better understanding of institutional persistence and change. Empirically, it will examine the resistance to chance in international standards-setting and regulatory institutions.

Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Review Method: Peer Reviewed
Abstract: The Theory of Reasoned Action (TRA, Fishbein & Ajzen, 1975) argues that interventions that change psychological mediators (e.g., intent to use condoms) will change behavior that maintains or improves health (e.g., condom use). Yet, no research to date had examined whether change in theoretical mediators actually produces targeted behavior change. To test TRA theoretical predictions, structural equation models of the TRA were specified and evaluated using measures obtained in an HIV longitudinal prevention intervention study (N = 144 women) where a significant reduction of HIV risk behavior over time had been documented. Although some of the predicted theoretical relationships were significant, predicted mediators accounted for no more than 4 percent of the variance in changes in health-maintaining behavior. These results suggests that other factors need to be considered in the theory and thus in interventions. Implications and limitations of the findings are discussed and suggestions for future research are considered.

Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Review Method: Peer Reviewed
Abstract: Both pooled aggregate analysis of the American states (Kone and Winters, 1993) and cross-sectional individual-level analysis of election exit polls in the states (Niemi et al., 1995) established weak negative impacts of changing taxes on subsequent vote outcomes and voter behavior. Our research investigates the impact of legislated changes in the sales, income, and “sin” taxes on individual voting using exit polls from 43 states in 228 elections from 1982-2000 yielding about 315,000 respondents. We hypothesize conditions that affect the tax-vote linkage. We find stronger negative effects of changes in the sales tax on vote choice, but little or no impact of changes in either the income or sin taxes. Some other non-obvious findings of the paper include: Republican candidates defending tax records do worse than Democratic candidates, a trait that appears concentrated among open seat Republicans. By decomposing into types of taxes changed, it appears that Republicans are particularly sensitive to sales tax changes, especially if an incumbent, and open seat Republicans to their party-predecessor’s income tax changes. Of the impact of tax changes on voters, there appears to be little variation in the impact of tax changes on lower or upper income classes nor by party identification of the voter.