Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Review Method: Peer Reviewed
Abstract: Why do policy positions become correlated across issues? How does this correlation evolve over time? The formation and diffusion of ideological preferences in populations is a critical but under-theorized part of the answer. Using tools and concepts from sociology, psychology, and political science this paper investigates emergent, system-level characteristics given a set of formal, micro-level postulates about preference change. Axelrod's (1997) agent-based simulation model of cultural diffusion is our point of departure. Axelrod uses "traits" to represent preferences and “cultural similarity” to determine the likelihood that two agents will interact, given that they have been paired together by some rule external to themselves. Agents are unable to interact if they do not exactly share at least one "trait". We relax these assumptions by developing a measure of "ideological similarity" that governs each agent's selection of interaction partners, thereby endogenizing partner selection to the agent and making previously impossible interactions possible. We examine the system's correlation, consolidation, and clustering (Latané 2000) over time and find Axelrod’s model to be a special case of a more general family of connected network models of influence. We use the results of the initial simulations to identify necessary future modifications. Incorporating non-linear social influence functions will be key to understanding the emergence and persistence of ideological heterogeneity.

Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Abstract: Fathers’ rights websites provide a wealth of information about their interests and activities. The topics and substance of the FR arguments were gathered throughout a one-year review of over 300 internet-based FR web sites. Fourteen major themes were noted including the promotion of a presumption of joint custody or shared parenting; claims that domestic violence is exaggerated; claims that women are more violent than or equally violent as men; and claims that allegations of domestic violence are false, and used manipulatively to gain advantage in divorce proceedings. Data analysis was conducted at the state level. The average number of FR themes per web site was correlated with state policy favoring joint custody after controlling for the proportion of divorced people in the population. This is of concern because it indicates that state legislation affecting the well-being of women and children is being influenced by rhetoric that denies the reality of domestic violence and that portrays women in a negative light.

Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Review Method: Peer Reviewed
Abstract: Abstract. The United Nations Development Program (UNDP) ranks countries annually on their human development index (HDI), which combines a country’s values on longevity, literacy, and per capita income. Hierarchical modeling is applied to uncover the factors that predict a country’s HDI rank, explain the variability between regions, ó2R, and explain the variability between countries within a region, ó2c. The effects on the HDI of nine civilizations are assessed: African, Buddhist, Hindu, Japanese, Latin, Moslem, Orthodox, Sinic, and Western. Civilization is a strong predictor of a country’s rank on the HDI, but it does not provide the strongest causal explanation of the variability in the HDI quantified by ó2R and ó2c.. Among the covariates studied here, the new slavery (bonded servitude, forced labor, forced prostitution) and the lack of political freedom explain much of the variability that is between regions and corruption explains much of the variability among countries within a region. Additionally, countries with high values of conflict and social unrest and debt have significantly worse positions on the HDI. Civilization is best viewed as a pointer to underlying social mechanisms that more directly determine development; their modification may enhance development.
*Author’s Note: With contributions by Kevin Bales, who provided several of his measures for analysis, and by Irina Koltoniuc, who helped operationalize the constructs and develop the analytic data base. Helen Fein underscored the importance of the new slavery, Philip Gibbs of the SAS Institute clarified some of the nuances of PROC MIXED, and Stanley Guterman and Andy Baker critiqued an earlier draft. The views expressed here are my own and do not necessarily reflect the opinions or policies of the United Nations Development Program or any other organization. This draft lacks mathematical symbols for the estimated statistics.

Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Abstract: This study examines whether states follow the constitution clauses on their religion in 149 states. Specifically it measures the presence of (1) separation of religion and state clauses (2) clauses banning religious discrimination or protecting religious freedom and (3) clauses banning discrimination on the basis of religion or protecting equality regardless of religion. The presence of these clauses is tested against the extent to which states engage in religious discrimination and religious legislation based on variables from the Religion and State (RAS) dataset. The results show a limited impact of constitutional clauses on government behavior. Religious freedom clauses are associated with lower levels of religious discrimination in the bivariate analysis but this result does not hold up in the multi-variate analysis and most states with such clauses engage in at least some religious discrimination. States with constitutional separation of religion and state clauses engage in less religious legislation but the vast majority of them engage in at least some religious legislation. This result is consistent in both the bivariate and multi-variate analyses. Clauses banning discrimination on the basis of religion or protecting equality regardless of religion have no impact on religious discrimination.

Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Review Method: Peer Reviewed
Abstract: This paper documents the candidate nomination processes of major political parties through primaries, compares the campaign platforms of major candidates, and investigates the factors that determined the election outcomes. I will focus on comparisons of the patterns of voting behavior in the 2002 election with those of the two previous presidential elections of 1992 and 1997. Special attention will be given to examining whether or nor the effects of regionalism on the election results have changed over the past three presidential elections.