Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Abstract: The question this paper addresses is whether and, if so, to what extent can existing IR theories of high politics decision making be applied to low politics issue areas, specifically international environmental policy. The paper considers three individual level theories: Prospect Theory, Political and Policy Risk Theory and Poliheuristic Theory. Each is applied to two case studies, The Montreal Protocol and The Kyoto Protocol, to test its ability to explain the decision-making processes of United States presidents. The climate change case study is most illustrative, either for or against the applicability of a theory, as the risks presidents faced were greater. The paper concludes that none of the applications lend full support to any of the theories. At the same time, none of them completely invalidate the theories either. Of the three, Political and Policy Risk Theory shows the most promise, while the analysis of Prospect Theory reveals some weaknesses in its applicability and the results of the application of Poliheuristic Theory fall somewhere in between. The findings suggest that foreign policy analysis theories may be best able to explain international environmental policy choices if they can capture the complexity of the issue, better define risk and allow for more human agency in terms of personal preferences and belief systems. In general, the applications to environmental policy suggest that the three theories could be adjusted or amended to become better generalizable to different policy areas.

Publication Type: Abstract
Abstract: The Nashville crayfish (Orconectes shoupi) is restricted to 1 small watershed in Tennessee. Recovery from local extinction events depends upon the species’ ability to re-colonize. Also, the method of protecting segments of the population in areas to be disturbed has been removal and upstream transport before disturbance. But time required for the depleted area to be re-colonized was unknown. I monitored re-colonization of sites where crayfish had been removed. A 50m site was chosen in each of 3 streams, with differing characteristics in amount of stream flow, substrate, and past history of capture rates and species mix. Sweeps of each site were conducted until an estimated 80% of the site crayfish population were removed. Crayfish were transported 1-2 km upstream. Sites were surveyed at regular intervals until capture rates indicated that crayfish densities were at pre-removal levels. Population density and species relative abundance varied greatly between the 3 sites. All sites showed rapid re-colonization, with capture rates increasing significantly in the first few days after depletion. Depletion did not appear to affect relative densities of species. Results indicate that in order to remove a significant proportion of the population prior to disturbance, a series of sweeps need to be made. Further, rapid re-colonization may result in population levels at pre-removal levels during disturbance activities that last more than a few days, unless follow-up removals are done.

Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Abstract: Since the relative versus absolute gains debate in the early 90s little research has been devoted to a) modifying the realist theory of international cooperation and b) testing the predictive power of such a modification. This paper first develops a model that demonstrates the explanatory power of a properly specified relative gains argument and second measures the level of cooperation achieved in different issue areas based on the Oslo-Potsdam solution. We develop two infinitely repeated n-actor relative gains models, one for excludable and one for non-excludable goods. In line with both realist and neoliberal reasoning we argue that relative gains will only matter if they are potentially large enough to be security relevant. We then show that in cases where relative gains matter (trade and global warming) such relative gains concerns only lead to a reduction in the level of cooperation if the benefits from cooperation are non-excludable. We further demonstrate that the relative gains argument also allows us to explain different levels of cooperation for different cases of public goods (ozone depletion versus global warming). The non-excludability of benefits leads to more severe restrictions in the attainable level of cooperation in cases where relative gains matter (global warming). The second half of the paper attempts to test the predictions of the models derived by using comparative statics. Based on the Oslo-Potsdam solution I estimate the level of cooperation achieved in three cases (trade, ozone depletion and global climate change) by determining the non-cooperative outcome, the collective optimum and the actual policy. I find that the evidence supports the theory and that the Oslo-Potsdam solution provides a very useful measurement concept which helps enhance the empirical testing of theoretical proposition.

Publication Type: Proceeding

Publication Type: Abstract
Abstract: The black abalone (Haliotis cracherodii) has experienced declines of 90% or more in density through about 80% of its geographic range, which extends along the west coast of North America from Pt. Arena, California, to Isla de Cedros, Baja California Sur. The black abalone is a prosobranch gastropod mollusk occurring in rocky intertidal and shallow subtidal habitats on exposed shorelines. Declines are most severe south of 35° 40’ N. The primary cause is a lethal disease, withering syndrome (WS), first observed off southern California in 1985. WS is caused by a Rickettsia-like prokaryote that invades and disables the digestive system. Mortality rates are enhanced by above-normal sea surface temperatures. Disease-induced mortalities have reduced abalone densities below minima necessary for successful reproduction and recruitment. Withering syndrome is spreading northward and may soon encompass the entire geographic range of black abalone. Other factors contributing to declines include poaching, commercial and recreational harvest, and natural predators. A Status Review Team (SRT), convened by the US National Marine Fisheries Service, has developed a simple population model suggesting a 96% probability that black abalone will suffer functional extinction within 30 years. The black abalone is designated “critically endangered” on the IUCN Red List. Recently the SRT recommended that black abalone be listed as “endangered” pursuant to the US Endangered Species Act.