Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Review Method: Peer Reviewed
Abstract: The paper presents a forecast model of the major-party vote in American presidential elections that is based on these predictors:

· Primary support of the major-party nominees
· Long-term partisanship
· Presidential vote cycle

The parameters of the model are statistically estimated with data from presidential elections since 1912 (n = 23), going back farther, and thus covering more elections, than any other forecast model. With an R2 of .92 and a standard error of 2.5, this vote model, in a post-facto sense, picks the winner in all but one of the elections from 1912 to 2000. The lone miss occurs in 1960, the closest contest in the 20th century. I also present the theory behind the predictors, the measurement of the variables, and the estimation and testing of the statistical model. As of this moment, the complete model is able to make only conditional forecasts of the 2004 presidential election. Given the most likely outcome of the New Hampshire Primary on January 27, 2004, George W. Bush is forecast to win reelection in November, with the margin of victory depending on the primary support of his Democratic opponent.

Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Review Method: Peer Reviewed
Abstract: This paper applies a threshold autoregression (TAR) model to a casualties time series to show that the autoregressive nature of such events depends on the level of terrorism at the time of a shock. Following a shock, persistence of heightened attacks characterizes low-terrorism regimes, but not high-terrorism regimes. Similar findings are associated with incidents with deaths, bombings with deaths, and hostage taking. In contrast, the assassinations series indicates some persistence even in the high-terrorism state, while the threats/hoaxes series displays persistence in only the high-terrorism state. For all series studied, the TAR model outperforms a standard autoregressive representation. A forecasting method is engineered based on the TAR estimates, and nicely tracks resource-using events.

Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Review Method: Peer Reviewed
Abstract: This paper is a companion to "A Global Forecasting Model of Political Instability" (Goldstone et al.), also prepared for the 2005 APSA Annual Meeting. Using the data and methods that are described in that paper, we present statistical models that were developed to assess the vulnerability of countries worldwide to ethnic war, and the vulnerability of predominantly Muslim countries to all types of instability. While we identify some risk factors that are unique to ethnic war and Muslim countries, we conclude that the predictors of instability are fundamentally similar across a broad range of forms and cultural milieus.

Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Abstract: By recounting the story of the recent operational restructuring of the National Weather Service (NWS), this paper represents a first attempt to gain insight into the sociocultural assumptions embodied in the construction of technological systems. Specifically, I trace the effort of the NWS to carve a niche for itself as a high quality data provider in order to remain viable and relevant through the engineering of an elaborate sociotechnical complex, meant to secure the cooperation of all necessary actors (forecasters, machines, the weather, and NWS customers). My ethnographic research at a local NWS forecasting office provides the necessary vantage point whence to explore the impact of this sociotechnical innovation on operational forecasters and highlights their experiences as they struggle to adapt to weather forecasting in the digital age.

Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Abstract: [Note: Due to the fact that this event occurred only four months ago and the research project was conceived only after the first author was able to recover a certain degree from being a victim of the event, a full manuscript is not ready. I hope an exception will be made to submitting a full manuscript, a policy which I wholeheartedly support in general. I will report the progress which has been made to date on the research to support my request for an exception.]

A Katrina-like catastrophic event occurring in coastal Louisiana and the related causative processes that contributed to it have been the research topic and subject of professional and public presentations of over 75 scientists from multiple disciplines and technical agency officials primarily over the last decade. Most have also been responsive to numerous media interviews at all levels of reporting—local, national and international. The warnings were not heeded. This research examines a myriad of questions about the role of science in a society’s response to a worse case prediction of environmental degradation/natural hazard risk framed conceptually from the perspectives of sociology of risk, science, knowledge, and policy creation.