Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Review Method: Peer Reviewed
Abstract: This paper examines the impact of protest-related arrests on future willingness to engage in protest based on data drawn from qualitative interviews with 27 randomly selected protesters who were arrested during the 2004 RNC. The paper begins by discussing the length and detention conditions for arrestees, which situates the reactions of arrestees to their confinement experiences. The paper then examines interview data, identifying and explaining trends that exist between the likelihood of future protest participation, and: (1) whether the participant intended/expected to be arrested or not; (2) severity of arrest and confinement experience; (3) case disposition (found guilty, case dismissed, adjournment in contemplation of dismissal, etc.); (4) prior arrest experiences; and (5) prior protest participation. Findings show that surprisingly, not all of these factors shaped willingness to protest in the future, but some markedly affect stated intentions. Finally, theoretical implications are discussed and findings are situated in terms of their generalizability for all RNC arrestees and other protest arrestees using quantitative data on all 2004 RNC arrestees.

Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Review Method: Peer Reviewed
Abstract: Assessment of whether future US wars will be conducted according to 'jus in bello' principles of noncombatant discrimination, minimizing collateral damage, and proportionality of means. Evidence comes from the author's unique access to experiments conducted by US Joint Forces Command's Concept Development & Experimentation directorate.

Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Review Method: Peer Reviewed
Abstract: In this paper the author will: 1) review relevant literature and ongoing activities related to existing efforts to project MDG indicators and discussions of future MDG targets, including alternative indicators; 2) compare the potential of the Internationa

Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Review Method: Peer Reviewed
Abstract: The mid- and long-range future holds a number what are sometimes called inevitable surprises. These include the aging of global populations, the unfolding of the death phase of the HIV/AIDS epidemic, the economic rise of large emerging countries and a resultant global power transition, the continuing march of value change and democratization around the world, an energy transition to renewable forms, and a struggle to achieve a sustainability transition. The timing is uncertain for each and some could possibly be subject to true surprises, but most will unfold with substantial impact on peoples, economies and governance systems. This paper discusses how investigation of such inevitable surprises with the International Futures (IFs) world modeling system can increasingly help us understand their secondary implications and the policy levers available for managing them.

Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Abstract: The study of cyclical patterns of economic leadership have gained increasing attention in recent years, not just in economics, but also related other fields of inquiry. This paper will focus on the role of Information Technology in intrastate and interstate dynamics of political and economics leadership in the world system, tracing its historical roots and current developments to provide suggestions for its future role as a carrier technology for emerging new leading sectors.