Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Review Method: Peer Reviewed
Abstract: Interracial exposure (p*) indices have been widely-used in studies of residential racial segregation. However, a recent pilot study raised serious issues about the use of these indices, because they are based on the mean statistic, which may yield misleading results in the case of skewed distributions, as is often the case with census tract racial compositions. An alternative median exposure index (p*-md) is proposed, and mean and median indices of white-to-African American and African American-to-white exposure are compared for the fifty largest metropolitan areas in the United States. The analysis shows that the two measures produce different results, and that these differences are maximized in those areas that are most segregated and, for African American-to-white exposure, in areas where the largest number of African Americans live. This creates significant problems in the interpretation and use of mean exposure indices, and in most cases, the median exposure index yields a result more representative of the residential neighborhood exposure of the majority of whites and African Americans.

Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Abstract: While measures to indicate social progress, “social indicators,” have been discussed periodically and seem to be returning to the fore, and the importance of economic indicators remains undisputed, empirical measures of cultural states in comparison remain rather undeveloped. Thus, there is no existing program for systematically gathering data that goes beyond simple indices of social welfare to reflect cultural states in which meaning is embedded. This paper is a first step in a theoretical reexamination of Gerbner’s original formulation of cultural indicators, as well as a roadmap for future work. We present a basic review of the main historical, theoretical, and applied aspects of established economic, social, and environmental indicators in order to develop a conceptual framework for integrating empirical measures of meaning with indices of social and economic conditions. Furthermore, we use the topic of violence and crime to demonstrate how an integrated framework combining social and cultural indicators may be applied to measure social welfare.

Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Abstract: In 1922 Walter Lippman wrote, “Decisions in modern states tend to be made by the interaction, not of Congress and the executive, but of public opinion and the executive." Public opinion polls have become increasingly important to the modern president. While an uninformed citizen uses enemy imagery as a heuristic, a president uses enemy imagery, or a stereotyped evaluation of an external threat, to shore up support. Therefore, a president’s enemy image strategy should be reactive to fluctuations in public opinion. Support for this claim is offered via a content analysis framework which produces weekly time-series data on the number of enemy images used in managed rhetoric during President George W. Bush’s first term. Specifically, an Interrupted Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average model (ARIMA) is used discern the applicability of this framework and to judge the feasibility of these claims.

Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Review Method: Peer Reviewed
Abstract: Historical cases of power transitions have long been a useful source of insights into the development of contemporary power relationships. Relatively neglected, however, have been studies that investigate the long-term dynamics of such periods. This paper analyzes American foreign policy from 1824 to 1870 within the framework of Frank L. Klingberg's and Jack E. Holmes' theories on long-term foreign policy cycles to analyze the societal influences behind the dynamics of this period of national expansion and consolidation. Testing the interpretative robustness of indicators of domestic economic, military, and national political conditions, the implications on the policymaking process of a broad range of contributing factors to the determination of policy are then explored.

Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Review Method: Peer Reviewed
Abstract: Operational Code Analysis (Op Code), Leadership Trait Analysis (LTA) are two recently automated methods used for the remote assessment of political figures. Theoretically, each of the methods provides information about different aspects of a leader's personality and style. However, until recently we have been unable to test this assumption quantitatively. Using data from 76 world leaders, we compare the unique contributions to remote assessment of LTA, and Op Code and determine the degree of overlap between each measure in both methods. This comparison leads to a number of suggested improvements and for two additional measures that should improve our ability to assess and predict the foreign policy behavior of national leaders.

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