Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Review Method: Peer Reviewed
Abstract: Labor unions have increasingly engaged the environment, more prominently through the ecological modernization strategy of Green Jobs. Central to their views on the environment have been questions of justice. Using a heuristic scheme that is based on voice and choice this paper explores whether unions have moved beyond the implications of environmental policies on distributive and structural social justice to address the environment as a priority in itself. This preliminary review offers some evidence that unions have addressed questions of distributive (environmental) justice and have made some progress towards a more structural (ecological) approach to justice.

Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript

Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Abstract: The statistical modelers are back. The presidential election forecasting errors of 2000 did not repeat themselves in 2004. On the contrary, the forecasts, from at least seven different teams, were generally quite accurate (Campbell 2004; Lewis-Beck 2005). Encouragingly, their prowess is receiving attention from forecasters outside the social sciences, in fields such as engineering and commerce. Noteworthy here is the recent special issue on U.S. presidential election forecasting published in the International Journal of Forecasting, containing some 10 different papers (Campbell and Lewis-Beck 2008). Our contribution in that special issue explored the question of whether our Jobs Model, off by only 1 percentage point in its 2004 forecast, was a simple product of data-mining (Lewis-Beck and Tien 2008).
To examine the possibility of such curve-fitting, we carried out a series of tests, including step ahead forecasts for each election from 1984 through 2004. We found that the median out-of-sample error was small, less than 1 percentage point (at .87). Further, this compared favorably to the median out-of-sample error on the same elections of 1.53, from a theoretically impregnable core model. Finally, we entertained other specifications of the Jobs Model, in particular one that separates out “open-seat” races such as 2008, when no president is running. Again, the original Jobs Model was statistically more secure than these alternatives. Thus, we have considerable confidence in the Jobs Model specification, at least as far as it goes. Below, we offer the Jobs Model forecast for 2008, which designates Senator Barack Obama as the winner. Then, we examine how that forecast might be modified, in light of the “new data” of a Black presidential candidate.

Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Review Method: Peer Reviewed
Abstract: In this paper I argue that despite the valid critiques of Job Clubs and other job readiness workshops made by various scholars, these classes may also benefit clients in unforeseen ways that are significant. My findings are based on my observations of four Job Club and Job Search classes at two different sites within one California county. The instructors were the most crucial factor in how far the classes strayed from the negative assumptions with which I entered. There are two characteristics of the classes and welfare bureaucracy that allowed for these positive outcomes. First, there are spaces within the classes for relationships to develop and for clients and instructors to share information and support. Secondly, the ambiguity of many welfare rules allows for significant variation among caseworkers, both in terms of the help they provide clients, and in their interpretation and application of the rules.

Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Review Method: Peer Reviewed
Abstract: Which people end up in which jobs is not merely a matter of the individual and human capital characteristics of workers and the requirements and rewards of jobs, but is also a function of the process by which persons and jobs are matched with one another (Granovetter 1981; Sørensen and Kalleberg 1981). A poorly understood component of the matching process is how workers and employers find information about each other. We propose a framework for analyzing the dynamics of labor market behavior that emphasizes both the two-sided nature of the matching problem and the potential effects of different information structures. The basic framework for describing labor markets is flexible, and can be used to represent common types of labor markets including spot markets for labor and systems characterized by competition over vacancies. Through simulation, we use this framework to explicitly vary the structure of information flow between workers and employers, thereby allowing us to explore how different recruitment strategies influence labor market performance in different institutional environments. Preliminary results suggest that full information is the most efficient and egalitarian information regime. However, in key respects, information that flows through socially structured networks produces macro-level and individual-level outcomes quite similar to those observed in the full information regime, although with lower mobility rates. In contrast, unstructured limited information produces more egalitarian outcomes than either full information or social networks, by giving workers equally bad opportunities.