Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Review Method: Peer Reviewed

Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Abstract: This mulitvariate comparative analysis seeks to determine whether district magnitude has an affect on citizens’ perceptions of government effectiveness.

Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Abstract: Crime waves in society have the nasty characteristic of being difficult to
explain. However, crime waves are made up of changes in offending rates of
multiple age cohorts, and the study of differences among age cohorts is an
entry point for better explanations of crime waves. The present paper focuses
on the large cohort differences in violence among the young males in the
Pittsburgh Youth Study. Analyses focus on the shared time-window (ages 13 to
19) between the youngest and oldest cohorts. Results show that the prevalence
and frequency of violence, but also gang membership, gun carrying, and drug
dealing, was substantially higher in the oldest cohort. Many of the
explanatory factors for serious delinquency are shared between the two cohorts,
but there are also unique ones that help to explain why offending was much
higher in the oldest cohort. The results are discussed in terms of age,
cohort, and period effects, with the latter being particularly important
because the oldest sample reached their peak offending during a crime wave in
Pittsburgh in the early 1990s.

Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Abstract: What determines the policy positions of parties? This question has been investigated by many economists and political scientists. Especially, rational choice theory has revealed how vote maximizing parties choose their policy positions under the settings of the single member district system.
Compared with the case of the single member district, researches on the multiparty competition under the multi-member district are relatively rare because of the difficulty of the mathematical treatment of multiparty competition.
In addition to the mathematical difficulty, existing mathematical models of electoral competitions under the multimember district also fail to deal with the new party entry and the endogeneity of the number of parties, which surely affect positions of existing parties.
In our paper, we use a multi-agent simulation in order to analyze the effects of district magnitude on party positions. We modify the model of endogenous parties proposed by Schilperoord and Laver (2007) and incorporate hypothetical elections into the model. Then, we record policy positions of parties according to the change of district magnitudes, entry hurdles and the distribution of voters’ opinion. Using this model, we can see district magnitude and entry hurdles are more important determinants of party locations than voters’ opinion.

Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Review Method: Peer Reviewed
Abstract: A major Midwestern earthquake easily may cause 6,000 deaths and $450 billion in damage, while disrupting oil and gas supplies, medical, and transportation and communications systems . In 1811 and 1812 there were three major quakes that have been estimated to register magnitude 7.5 to 8, changing the course of the Mississippi River. The U.S. Geological Survey projects a 7 to 10 percent chance of an equally strong quake within the next 50 years, and a 25 to 40 percent chance of one of at least magnitude 6. The capacities of local first responders as well as state and federal governmental disaster response systems will be completely overwhelmed. The public health and medical system will be used as a partial example of some significant shortfalls between need and capacities in such an event.