Publication Type: Abstract
Abstract: Rationale and Objectives. Estimated multi-attribute utility functions have relied on linear additive or multiplicative functional forms that assume respectively a lack of preference interactions among attributes or only one type of preference interaction. Are there quantitatively important and statistically significant interactions in preferences among attributes in the Health Utilities Index Mark 3 (HUI3) system? How would the performance of the less restrictive multi-linear model compare to the performance of the multiplicative model?

Methodology. HUI3 has 8 attributes, vision, hearing, speech, ambulation, dexterity, emotion, cognition, and pain, with 5 or 6 levels per attribute. A preference survey was conducted of a random sample of the general population (n = 256) using a one-half 2 to the eight power fractional factorial design plan. The same survey provided scores for the estimation of a multiplicative multi-attribute utility function. A parallel survey (n = 248) provided directly measured standard gamble utility scores for 73 HUI3 health states. The fractional factorial design permits the identification of all 8 main effects, 26 of 28 two-way interactions, and 4 of 56 three-way interactions terms. The estimated equation was forced to pass through 0 (for the health state with all attributes at lowest functional level) and 1 (all attributes at highest level). Agreement between directly measured scores from the second sample and scores from the multi-linear and multiplicative utility functions was assessed using an intra-class correlation coefficient.

Results. For the multi-linear model, the adjusted R-squared was 0.63. All 8 main effects were quantitatively important (coefficient >0.024) and statistically significant (p < 0.10). Two-way interaction terms indicating preference complementarity were quantitatively important and statistically significant in 18 cases and insignificant in 2 cases. Two-way interaction terms indicating preference substitutes were important and significant in 4 cases and insignificant in 2 cases. All 4 three-way interaction terms were important and significant. Agreement between directly measured scores and scores from the multiplicative function was much higher than agreement between directly measured scores and scores from the multi-linear function.

Conclusions. There are quantitatively important and statistically significant interactions in preferences among attributes of health status. These results call into question the use of linear additive multi-attribute utility functions. The multiplicative function out performed the multi-linear function in out-of-sample prediction. The omnibus interaction term of the multiplicative function indicates preference complementarity and appears to handle the preference interactions more than adequately.

Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Review Method: Peer Reviewed
Abstract: Arbitron�s syndicated radio listening survey is multi mode (telephone/mail) survey that recruits survey respondents for a one-week radio listening diary. In order to maintain proportionality and representation in the survey, Arbitron uses basic differential survey treatments to recruit household into the survey based on geographies and starting sample characteristics. Despite these differential treatments, significant differences in response rates exist across geographies and among respondents.


In previous work, key socio-economic and demographic differences are cited as significant variables in explaining survey participation. Differences in race, ethnicity and income are shown to have significant impacts on survey response rates. However, these broad socio-economic characteristics are typically used independently of data specific to the data collection efforts such as Interviewer characteristics, timing of day and conversion efforts. This paper will bring together a wide range of characteristics in a multi equation model to explain the interaction of socio-economic variables and specific placement variables. The model will help explain these differences in context of a two stage multi mode survey that depends on a diverse survey population in a complex data collection methodology.

Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Abstract: Data from 21 Western countries participating in the International Crime Victimization Survey were analyzed to better understand public attitudes toward punishment. Logistic regression models and hierarchical linear models indicate that there is significant variation in public punitiveness among Western nations, with the U.S. leading all countries in punitiveness and that the same predictors influence punitiveness in a similar way across Western countries. Those who are empathetic are less punitive while those who think police are doing a poor job, who employ crime-prevention measures, and who perceive their risk of break-in to be high are the most punitive. Further, those who live in countries with high violent crime rates and high incarceration rates are also more punitive. Fully 40 percent of variation in punitiveness among countries is due to their incarceration and violent crime rates alone. Further analysis is underway to better explain public punitiveness both within and between countries. In particular, alternative measures for a cultural liking for punishment are being considered (e.g. criminal justice expenditure instead of incarceration rate). Thus far, there is strong evidence that a utilitarian rationale underlies punitiveness at both the individual and country level.

Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Review Method: Peer Reviewed
Abstract: We study a model of multi-party multi-dimensional electoral competition. The model accounts for empirically observed features of political systems despite the lack of Nash equilibria in models with more than two parties or more than one dimension.

Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Review Method: Peer Reviewed
Abstract: The effect of ethnicity on party politics in (1999-present) Nigeria has been paradoxical. Despite ethno-religious violence over Islamic law and an insurgency among minorities in the oil-producing regions, the ruling Peoples’ Democratic Party (PDP) formed a super-majority multiethnic coalition that has survived despite the scale of ethnic conflict. Chandra (2004) notes competitive intraparty advancement is a prerequisite for the success of ethnic parties. In unequal multiethnic coalitions, it is difficult to guarantee minority ethnic members a chance to advance within the party, when candidates depend on ethnic appeals for support at home that may escalate ethnic tensions. The PDP’s rotational system guarantees intraparty advancement of ethnic minorities without sacrificing members’ ability to campaign ethnically at home. Examining the 2008, 2007, and 2003 elections, I show how local PDP campaign strategies rally ethno-religious support but provide cues to minorities that ethnic “talk” by their rivals within the party does not violate the multi-ethnic deal. This redirects the literature on ethnic parties, which has focused on how parties are built on “nested” ethnic identities, but has ignored the dynamics of multi-ethnic parties.