Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Abstract: There has been much discussion about the race factor in the 2008 Democratic presidential contest. This contemporary journalistic and political debate has sparked interest in a scholarly literature that has debated for some time the question of discrimination against African American candidates. This paper contributes to these twin debates. It asks whether Barack Obama is more vulnerable to negative attack than a comparable white candidate. Using an experiment implemented with a national sample of whites in real time during the early phase of the 2008 Presidential campaign, we find that the answer is a qualified “yes”. We draw implications for Obama’s campaign and for black candidates and the “race card” more generally.

Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Abstract: The statistical modelers are back. The presidential election forecasting errors of 2000 did not repeat themselves in 2004. On the contrary, the forecasts, from at least seven different teams, were generally quite accurate (Campbell 2004; Lewis-Beck 2005). Encouragingly, their prowess is receiving attention from forecasters outside the social sciences, in fields such as engineering and commerce. Noteworthy here is the recent special issue on U.S. presidential election forecasting published in the International Journal of Forecasting, containing some 10 different papers (Campbell and Lewis-Beck 2008). Our contribution in that special issue explored the question of whether our Jobs Model, off by only 1 percentage point in its 2004 forecast, was a simple product of data-mining (Lewis-Beck and Tien 2008).
To examine the possibility of such curve-fitting, we carried out a series of tests, including step ahead forecasts for each election from 1984 through 2004. We found that the median out-of-sample error was small, less than 1 percentage point (at .87). Further, this compared favorably to the median out-of-sample error on the same elections of 1.53, from a theoretically impregnable core model. Finally, we entertained other specifications of the Jobs Model, in particular one that separates out “open-seat” races such as 2008, when no president is running. Again, the original Jobs Model was statistically more secure than these alternatives. Thus, we have considerable confidence in the Jobs Model specification, at least as far as it goes. Below, we offer the Jobs Model forecast for 2008, which designates Senator Barack Obama as the winner. Then, we examine how that forecast might be modified, in light of the “new data” of a Black presidential candidate.

Publication Type: Invited Paper
Abstract: Barack Obama has been widely praised by rhetorical theorists, political commentators, and ordinary citizens for his use of value-laden rhetorical strategies and narratives tied to the American Dream to create an inclusive political perspective. What has not been recognized previously, however, is that in creating this value-laden narrative, Obama transforms a rhetorical approach that in formal terms is epideictic in nature into a call for fundamental policy change, a functionally deliberative perspective.

Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Abstract: Since the emergence of the “Religious Right” in the 1980s Christian Evangelicals have become an important electoral base of the Republican Party. As a result, it has become increasingly common for Republican candidates to embrace issues championed by religious conservatives. However, John McCain, the Republican nominee for President in 2008, has struggled to find support from the members of this important base because of his perceived lack of a moral agenda. Elaborating on the models of “issue ownership” (Petrocik 1996) and “trait ownership” (Hayes 2005) I suggest that Barack Obama is attempting to fill the void left by John McCain by addressing moral issues important to religious voters. Sampling from Obama’s speeches since his 2004 address at the Democratic National Convention until his clinching of the 2008 Democratic nomination, I examine specific instances of Obama’s use of religious issues and themes in his oratory. I will evaluate Obama’s attempts to address moral “issues” in the Petrocik sense, as well as own the “trait” moral in the Hayes sense. This information is important for campaigns and political scientists in evaluating the success of a candidate who attempts to move beyond the issues and traits typically associated with his or her party. This research also expands upon the two theories above by adding a recent example of issue and trait trespassing by a recent candidate.

Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Review Method: Peer Reviewed
Abstract: In the context of the historic election of 2008, with the nomination of Barack Obama as the Democratic Party’s candidate for the office of President of the United States, an invitation has been extended to the electorate, via the authors’ website, www.LetterstoPresidentObama. Letters to the newly elected president in which the citizenry and interested observers from around the globe share their hopes, dreams,_x000d_priorities along with recommendations for needed policies and programs are being collected and will be published, pending a favorable outcome for this candidate. In any case, the analysis and categorization of these letters will be the subject of this presentation. More specifically, we will focus on the results of a study of the identified issues, the demographic characteristics and the geographic distribution of the correspondents. We will highlight contemporary concerns and personal narratives that constitute the opinions of these individuals. These letters document the passions and the perspectives of those who speak of hope and the change that is needed.