Publication Type: Proceeding

Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Abstract: This paper uses data from Census 2000 and the 2000 General Election to examine differences in mass partisanship between cities and their suburbs. Hypotheses about why the magnitude of polarization varies across cities are offered and tested.

Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Review Method: Peer Reviewed
Abstract: The singular act of a Member of Congress placing a roll call vote in the US House, either yea or nay, occurred over five and a half million times from the 80th to 100th Congress. Using a dataset that links a large variety of exogenous factors to each of those acts of voting, this paper seeks to identify the development of “inter-party partisanship” (how opposed are the Democrats and Republicans to one another?) and “intra-party” partisanship, (how cohesively do members of the same party vote together?).

The first section of this paper examines the scope of roll call voting in the post war US House, detailing the number, distribution, and variety of roll call votes held in that period. Following that, the second section examines methods that can be used to identify inter-party partisanship, including updated uses of Lowell and Rice measures. In addition, party and vote are correlated for each roll call vote to create another measure of inter-party partisanship – one that is explored by Clausen roll call topics.

The paper goes on to examine intra-party partisanship by looking at predictors of partisan defection. Using a variety of methods culminating in a comprehensive Logit model, we are able to parse out many of the causal predictors of defection – roll call characteristics, member characteristics, constituency characteristics, and electoral marginality. We find that while no magic bullet exists that can overwhelmingly account for variance in the probability of a member defecting, several patterns emerge that indicate the large role roll call characteristics and member characteristics have in predicting defection.

Please email me (after 15 October) at danielsinger@comcast.net for full paper

Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Review Method: Peer Reviewed
Abstract: Numerous studies have demonstrated a weakening identification of voters with political parties in Western Europe over the last three decades. We argue that the growing proportion of voters with weak or no party affinities has strong implications for economic voting in systems with high clarity of government responsibility. When the proportion of voters with partisan affinities is low, the effect of economic performance on election outcomes is strong; when partisans proliferate, economic conditions matter less. Employing Eurobarometer data for eight European countries from 1976 to 1992, we demonstrate this inverse association between partisanship and the economic vote. This finding implies a growing effect for the objective economy on the vote in Europe but a declining effect in the increasingly partisan United States. It also explains two puzzles in the economic voting and electoral forecasting literatures. First, weak results in aggregate level cross-national studies of economic voting may be attributable to characteristics of the electorate, not just to clarity of responsibility of the government. Second, the over-prediction of incumbent vote share in recent U.S. election forecasts may stem from rising partisanship.

Publication Type: Proceeding