Publication Type: Abstract
Abstract: Should managers of metapopulations spend their money increasing the size of existing patches, or is it better to restore habitat to create a totally new patch? Although this is a classic question in metapopulation ecology, it has never been examined in a decision-theoretic context. Stochastic dynamic programming (SDP) was used in conjunction with a spatially implicit stochastic patch occupancy model to obtain an optimal state-based solution to this problem. An exact simplification of the SDP will be presented, giving a simple algebraic rule of thumb that can be used by managers. The model is used to prioritise management options for a case study of the endangered Mount Lofty Ranges Southern Emu Wren (Stipiturus malachurus intermedius) of South Australia (Westphal, Pickett, Getz & Possingham, 2003. Ecol. App. pp 543-555). We discovered that the best action for managing the Emu Wren population is to increase the size of all existing patches to a minimum threshold size before considering increasing the number of patches. Subject to the assumptions of the model, decision theory suggests that managers should generally increase existing patch areas as far as possible before choosing to restore new patches.

Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Review Method: Peer Reviewed
Abstract: This paper intends to discuss the evolution of the development thinking in a postcolonial context, with India’s notorious damming issue of the Sardar Sarovar Project as a case of study. The paper starts by reviewing the theorization of development based on the complexity among the notions of modernity, modernization, and globalization. It is followed by the notorious Narmada damming experience as the example of a postcolonial developing nation which has struggled between the mainstream mentality of development and its domestic social and environmental justices. The bitter consequence led to its grassroots anti-damming social movements. However, the opposition activities have been fruitful in establishing alternatives to the massive centralized project. Through their efforts the development thinking proposed by Amartya Sen seems to be feasible, and a more sophisticated and customized development in postcolonial countries seems also attainable by appropriately drawing on the merits of both the BLAST and GALA modes of understanding to which Sen has much contributed.

Publication Type: Abstract
Abstract: The aim of this project was to determine the amount of damage caused to farms around Cyamundongo Forest, in southwestern Rwanda, by crop-raiding and livestock predating animals, to determine factors increasing farmer vulnerability, and to assess attitudes about conservation and ecotourism efforts in the park. Data was collected through interviews with members of farming households in three villages around this small forest patch, which is home to many endangered birds and mammals, including chimpanzees. I determined that farmers were experiencing significant losses from crop-raiding and moderate losses from livestock predation, and have negative attitudes towards problem animals, in particular, baboons and jackals. However, contrary to my predictions, even local people who experience frequent raids did not express negative opinions of ecotourism or the park as a whole. This may be due to the new status of the park—it has only been a protected area since 2003, and local people are still adjusting to the changes. Despite overall positive attitudes towards the park, an overwhelming number of respondents expressed great concern about their ability to maintain their way of life, and increasing frustration over what they perceived to be a lack of involvement by local government and park officials. It is imperative that solutions be found to mitigate human-wildlife conflict in this area before public opinion turns and efforts to preserve biodiversity become threatened.

Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Review Method: Peer Reviewed
Abstract: The Night Rider Tobacco War during the period 1904-1909
in Kentucky and Tennessee provides a model case study of rebellion/
revolution/ social banditry. The use of platoon- and company-size unit
operations, guerilla warfare, boycotts and sabotage by the Dark Tobacco
Growers Association against the Duke Tobacco Trust followed the
trajectory of a revolution, from inception through success in
overturning the power relations in the traditional small tobacco farm
country. Success in gaining the aims of the movement was followed by a
melting away of the footsoldiers despite strenuous attempts by the
leadership of the Association to continue activities after victory in
the original aims of the group—destruction of the economic and
political stranglehold the Duke interests had achieved. As the factual
background of the events in the Dark Patch are known and—in most
instances—well documented, it is possible to use NetLogo programming to
test the validity of causational theories of revolution. NetLogo is a
computer modeling environment in which agents are programmed to carry
out specific, simple rules of behavior and allowed to interact—a
“virtual laboratory” in which the behavioral rules can be altered to
test different hypotheses and the result permitted to emerge based
solely upon the operation of those rules. For each posited causative
factor (Goldstone’s triad of inflation, heightened elite competition
and strain on governmental finances, for example) the original position
and dominant motivation(s) can be set up and the situation allowed to
play itself out to see how closely the predictions of the theory mirror
the historic record. The further a theory’s predictions deviate from
reality, the greater the doubt cast upon its validity.

Publication Type: Abstract
Abstract: To evaluate sufficiency of US federal critical habitat designations and a proposed conservation plan in promoting long-term persistence of the endangered plant Astragalus albens, I examined patterns of genetic diversity and landscape connectivity. A. albens harbors substantial genetic variation and shows no evidence of historic bottlenecks, suggesting little risk of extinction due to genetic homogeneity. The 91 existing A. albens patches were connected at a distance of 2100 m; 94% of patches were <1000 m from the nearest patch. Maintaining large population sizes and connectivity among populations throughout the species’ ecological and geographic ranges will most likely conserve existing diversity. Both reserve networks partially accomplish these goals by including >89% of the extent of the species, including the largest populations, and capturing all detected alleles. However, both networks exclude occurrences from one portion of the species’ range, possibly speeding loss of local adaptations. In addition, network connectivity is reduced with 65 critical habitat patches being connected at a distance of 6200 m and 61 proposed reserve patches being connected at 9500 m. Although total network connectivity would be reduced, connectivity at scales most relevant to gene flow remains mostly in tact, providing a potentially promising outlook for species persistence.