Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Abstract: This paper explores possible alternative uses for the role of luck in theorizing democracy and explores how the potentially fortune friendly use of probability theory in the social sciences has been misrepresented to highlight an imaginary predictability of political life that leads many theorists to shy away from its use.

Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Abstract: There is growing concern in the United States that adolescents and young adults have become increasingly unrealistic about their future achievements. Ample research evidence confirms that achievement expectations infrequently correspond to what is likely to occur. For example, contemporary teenagers expect to attain much more post-secondary education than their cohort will eventually attain. Yet what researchers have failed to show is whether unrealistic plans are necessarily problematic, despite the popular belief that they lead to frustration, wasted resources, and demoralization. This paper uses the 1979 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth to examine the mental health consequences of holding unrealistic expectations about getting a four-year college degree. Lagged panel regression models confirm that failing to achieve one’s college expectations is associated with lower levels of self-esteem and mastery and higher levels of depression. The negative impact of failing to complete a four-year degree is largest among those with little academic potential – that is, young adults whose plans were unrealistic given their academic potential – and larger for men than it is for women. However, teenagers who held unrealistic plans fared better than those of comparable academic potential who did not plan to complete a college degree. These findings suggest that “shooting for the stars” and falling short has offsetting benefits that boost students’ mental health beyond that experienced by young adults who “planned for the probable” and expected early on they would not get a college degree. Possible explanations for the surprising benefits of unrealistic plans are discussed.

Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Review Method: Peer Reviewed
Abstract: Economic modernization has been thought to promote
democracy on two levels: first, making democratic transitions more
likely (the endogenous link), and, second, making democracies more
stable (the exogenous link). While the latter link has gained
widespread acceptance, the former is still very controversial. This
paper re-conceptualizes the endogenous link between democracy and
development as a conditional probability problem, suggesting that, when
a transition takes place, it is more likely to be democratic in more
economically developed states. The study demonstrates that such an
understanding is consistent with previous findings and theory on
modernization, and then tests this conception of modernization in an
original dataset spanning 348
transitions in 116 countries from 1950-2000. The results provide strong
support for the conditional probability interpretation of
modernization.

Publication Type: Student Paper
Abstract: Multiple Sclerosis (MS) is a currently incurable autoimmune disease in which the immune system of the patient attacks components of his/her central nervous system. The cause of this disease is still unknown. However, various studies have linked both genetic and environmental factors to the susceptibility and development of MS. I develop a model that estimates the probability of developing MS based on the risk factors associated with MS. It is hoped that this model will help future researchers and physicians better predict and prevent the onset of MS. I will discuss my model, which uses multiple logistic regression analysis, to estimate the probability of a patient developing MS based on a variety of known and suspected genetic and environmental factors.

Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Abstract: One of the central theoretical concepts within the study of state politics has been the degree of competitiveness state political systems exhibit. A rich history of thought posits the consequences of such competitiveness from the work of Key to the present. Measures of this concept have also been prominently used, from the Ranney Index to that created by Holbrook and Van Dunk. However, these measures of state competitiveness miss one important aspect of the theoretical concept of electoral competition: what is the probability that party control of a legislative chamber or for the governor will switch in an upcoming election? This paper presents such a measure. A pooled model of state legislative and gubernatorial elections is utilized to create point estimates for each state legislative district’s election outcome as well as the outcome for gubernatorial elections. Simulations are utilized to yield the probability that any particular configuration of partisan control will exist after an election. Carsey, Berry, Niemi, Powell and Snyder’s State Legislative Election Returns database for 1967-2003 is utilized to construct the new measure.