Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Review Method: Peer Reviewed
Abstract: We focus on the ways in which race and ethnicity are fundamental dimensions to understanding the 2003 election in California. The specific observation that gives rise to this effort is that 1,282,253 fewer voters supported Democratic Lieutenant Governor Cruz Bustamante than voted against the recall of sitting Democratic Governor Gray Davis. Who were these switchers, and to what extent were these switchers racially motivated in their electoral decision-making?
Using the Los Angles Times exit poll from the recall election, we examine the characteristics of voters who displayed two unusual behavioral patters and compare them to voters who voted in more conventional ways. In the first such pattern, a sizeable portion of voters voted No on the recall and Against Bustamante. The second unexpected pattern is where individuals voted Yes on the recall and For Bustamante. We find that Latinos and African Americans, as compared to Whites and Asian Americans, were far less likely to have defected from Bustamante given a ‘no’ vote on the recall, and far more likely to have voted for Bustamante given a ‘yes’ vote—and possibly a strategic ‘yes’ vote—on the recall. Moreover, every one of those relationships holds up in the multivariate analysis, even once we control for a host of other socio-demographic and political factors that might have conceivably created the appearance of a racial divide when there was none.

Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Review Method: Peer Reviewed
Abstract: The recall of elected officials has become an
increasingly popular way for the public to express discontent with the
political process. In the wake of the recent landmark recall of
Governor Gray Davis of California, we should expect the incidence of
recall efforts to continue, if not increase, within the 18 states that
have constitutional recall provisions. Using the Davis recall effort as
a baseline, we are in the process of building a detailed cross-state
and cross-office database of nationwide recall attempts that, in
addition to recording the event details of each case such as sponsor
resources and the substantive claims justifying the recall, recognizes
institutional and contextual variables as well. Our institutional
variables include ballot format, signature thresholds, parameters for
the circulation of petitions, grounds for initiating recalls, and
election timing. Our contextual variables range from county-level
economic indicators such as unemployment levels and tax rates to
partisan indicators and the status of term limits.
We hope to use this data set to examine the following questions:
• How do contextual variables such as the state of the economy drive
the incidence of recall petitions? We hypothesize that circumstances
such as adverse economic conditions, as a proxy for voter discontent,
fuel recall petitions.
• How do institutional constraints, or features of each state’s or
locality’s statutory or constitutional recall provisions, influence the
success of recall efforts? In particular, we hypothesize that more
stringent recall guidelines impose higher costs on recall sponsors and
their allies, perhaps providing an institutional bias toward
incumbents.

Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Review Method: Peer Reviewed
Abstract: This paper analyzes voter data from the California special recall election, examining both the media messages the voters received and the information voters revealed to be important in their decision-making process. For the thirty days leading up to the October 7, 2003, recall election an electronic focus group was assembled to participate in a daily e-mail questionnaire, which asked what news each participant received that day, from what news source(s), including both political and non-political news, and whether or not they had decided to vote yes or no on the recall, and for which replacement candidate they intended vote. Despite the irregularities in our sample, the findings generally followed the trends that were observed in the larger population, as were measured in statistically significant surveys and exit polls made available to the public. Areas for future research may be in distinguishing the varying influence of the different forms of media (more traditional news sources versus the talk radio shows, internet news sites, and weblogs) on the voters.

Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Review Method: Peer Reviewed
Abstract: A path analysis model was tested predicting that emotional responses to the terrorist attacks of 9-11 would influence individuals’ visual recall of 9-11 images. Both visual recall and individuals’ emotions, in turn, would influence concerns about terrorism. Based on responses from a phone survey conducted two months after the attacks, the total number of visuals recalled by individuals and the emotions of sorrow and shock fit the model better than other variables. If individuals reacted to the 9-11 attacks with sorrow or shock, they stored several images in their long-term memory, especially the emotional images of people jumping from buildings and depictions of dead bodies. In turn, the total number of images recalled and the ability to recall images of Palestinians dancing in the streets and dead bodies increased respondents’ level of concern with terrorism. Concern with terrorism also was influenced by the emotional reactions of respondents to 9-11.

Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Review Method: Peer Reviewed
Abstract: Does interacting with online advertisements influence the cognitive processing of ad information? While interactivity is a much-touted aspect of Web advertising (there's even a Journal of Interactive Advertising), not a single study till date has manipulated the level of interactivity in ads and experimentally determined its effects. The present investigation is an effort to address this limitation in the literature. All participants (N = 48) in a 3 (Interactivity: Low, Medium, High) x 2 (Animation: Animated, Static) x 2 (Ad Shape: Banner, Square) fully-crossed factorial within-participants experiment were exposed to 12 news-article Web pages, with one ad in each of them. Following their exposure, their free recall, cued recall, and recognition memory for ad information were assessed. Results showed that high-interactive ads result in better recall but poorer recognition than medium-interactive ads. Animated ads fared better than static ads on cued recall, while banner ads were recognized better than square ads. Several significant two-way and three-way interactions were also obtained. Interpretation of results based on the limited capacity model proposed by Lang (2000) suggests that animated square ad in the medium-interactivity condition is the point of cognitive overload, and increasing interactivity beyond that point is likely to degrade encoding of ad information.