Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Review Method: Peer Reviewed
Abstract: The paper analyzes the regional trade agreements (RTAs) negotiated by the USA and the EU. The paper claims the two powers rival each other in these RTAs, exposing differences in the way in which they approach and handle globalization.

Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Review Method: Peer Reviewed
Abstract: The present study demonstrates in a quantitative analysis that grievance and interstate rivals significantly increase a country’s risk of civil war onset. Grievance is measured with the presence of a politically highly discriminated ethnic group, which has been in the country for a long time and is regionally concentrated, and it is interpreted as a motive for joining and supporting a rebellion. The presence of at least one interstate rival reflects the rebels’ opportunity to acquire weapons. The present study makes an important contribution to the quantitative civil war literature that has so far only partly confirmed the influence of grievance on the onset of civil war and has not proven the influence of interstate rivals on the onset of civil war at all. The present study argues that this lack of empirical evidence is due to an insufficient operationalization of the theoretical concepts that previous studies have used. Qualitative case studies and theoretical arguments provide ample support that grievance and rebel support from interstate rivals contribute to civil war onset. The study tests in a logistic regression whether the newly constructed variables grievance and rivalry exert a statistically significant influence on the onset of civil war. A subsequent qualitative analysis determines whether aggrieved groups indeed participated in the onset of civil war, and whether interstate rivals lent support to rebel groups. The quantitative results show that the existence of aggrieved groups and interstate rivals significantly increase a country’s risk of civil war onset. The qualitative analysis demonstrates that in 77% of cases with onset of protracted civil war and grievance, the aggrieved group participated at the onset of civil war and that in 81% of cases with onset of protracted civil war and rivalry, the interstate rival supported the rebel group.

Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Review Method: Peer Reviewed
Abstract: How do conflict management techniques, especially mediation, affect crisis behavior between pairs of states that experience recurrent international crises? This research will examine the crisis behavior of rival states that distinguish themselves from other crisis adversaries in terms of the sustained frequency of crisis outbreaks over time. The study will examine how different types of conflict management techniques ranging from less invasive tactics (i.e. vague calls for action by other states or IGOs) to more invasive measures (i.e. direct mediation) affect severity levels of subsequent crises and the likelihood that a rivalry will eventually come to an end. The study will also track whether rivalries in which conflict management strategies were pursued more aggressively from the very beginning differ in terms of duration and severity from rivalries in which such tactics were invoked significantly later. The research findings have the potential to yield direct policy implications regarding how to employ conflict management techniques more effectively in the rivalry context.

Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Abstract: The paper advances a prospect theory-based theoretical framework to explain cooperation among rivals in situations where relative gains concerns are acute, through a study of arms transfers between Russia and China.

Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Abstract: The paper advances a prospect theory-based theoretical framework to explain cooperation among rivals in situations where relative gains concerns are acute, through a study of arms transfers between Russia and China.