Publication Type: Proceeding
Abstract: This paper tells the stroy of how I came to write the post-mortem for CIA on why it was slow to see that the Shah of Iran might fall. It summarizes some of the report's findings and discusses general difficulties with intelligence.

Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Abstract: This work analyzes the critical role of intelligence in foreign policy. The case study focuses on one of the most significant intelligence failures for the U.S. in the Middle East, the failure to predict the Iranian revolution of 1978-1979. This paper discusses the failure to foresee the growing domestic crisis in Iran which led to the toppling of the pro-American monarchy and its replacement by an Islamic Republic hostile to U.S. interests. This was the result of the blinding of American intelligence for strategic, economic, and domestic political reasons. Second, the paper discusses the delicate politics of trying to gain intelligence on an ally. This leads to a discussion on the significance of alliances and the problems in particular of great powers gathering intelligence on regional allies. This paper utilizes secondary as well as primary U.S. government documents. The paper also discusses the structure and institutional norms of American intelligence and how these problems continue to manifest themselves today. This paper would fit well on panels focusing on intelligence studies, American foreign policy in general, as well as Middle East politics.

Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Abstract: This paper is an attempt to understand the dynamics behind the revolutionary character of Shiism, which is considered to be one of the most anti-status quo sects within Islam.Contrary to the essentialist arguments that some religions are more prone to revolutionary dynamics due to their theological backgrounds, we argue that there are environmental factors such as socio-economic dynamics within the country and the international political context that serve as better tools in understanding the revolutionary tendencies of religions. We analyze Shiism in Iran and make a comparative analysis between Shiism before the Shah regime and Shiism after the Shah regime. This comparison provides a valuable opportunity to grasp the real dynamics behind the revolutionary character of religion in general and Shiism in particular and challenge the Marxist argument that religion is the opium of masses by showing that religions can be used as powerful opposition strategies.

Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Abstract: I have argued elsewhere ("Faith and Peace: Jimmy Carter and the Camp David Accords", manuscript in progress) that President Jimmy Carter's religious beliefs shaped his peacemaking politics in the Middle East, particularly in his support for the human rights of Palestinians, as well as in his determination to bring peace to Israel and its neighbors. In a conflict which has elements that are both territorial and psychological, Carter and Egyptian President Anwar Sadat found in the religious figure of Abraham a symbol of the greater unity of the Jewish, Muslim and Christian faiths. In this paper I wish to ask how Carter's religious views affected his understanding of those forces in Iran that led to the fall of the Shah and the establishment of an Islamic Republic in Iran. As in the case of the Palestinians, did Carter's religious beliefs translate into support for greater human rights in Iran, which subsequently led to pressures for the Shah to reform? Alternatively, how did Carter perceive the opposition to the Shah, in particular the forces associated with the Ayatollah Khomeini? Given the debacle of American policy in Iran, it seems clear that Carter's religious beliefs provided him with little guidance in understanding what became the Iranian revolution.