Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Review Method: Peer Reviewed
Abstract: Models of the sequential nature of Senate elections have been proposed suggesting that the outcome of the election for one of the state's two U.S. Senate seats affects the contest for the other seat. More specifically, these models predict that the winning party for the first Senate seat will receive fewer votes, holding other things constant, in the next election for the other seat. Using data on U.S. Senate elections from 1946-2004 and a regression discontinuity design (RDD), we find strong evidence that the outcomes of the elections for the two Senate seats are independent for close elections. In looking at the factors that do explain the existence of split-party delegations, we argue that incumbency advantage has not been given enough attention and explore preliminary data showing its importance vis-a-vis partisan shifts.

Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Review Method: Peer Reviewed
Abstract: This paper models an on-year election in which the presidential
and legislative elections are held simultaneously. The president
is elected by plurality rule and each legislator is elected in
single member districts by simple plurality rule. Policy outcomes
are a function of not only which party holds the presidency but
which party gets the majority of seats in the legislature. Parties
are uncertain about the ideal points of the voters. With this
model, we show that first, there are some ticket-splitters in
every equilibrium, and second, there exists an equilibrium in
which moderate voters split their votes between presidential and
legislative elections. In addition, when we apply the equilibrium
strategy into two-period election, we find this model also
explains the midterm loss phenomena.

Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Review Method: Peer Reviewed
Abstract: In this paper we emphasize the need to use experimental designs to complement and supplement research on leadership and public opinion. While conventional individual level and aggregate level time series studies can provide compelling evidence regarding which leaders and what political communications can influence public opinion, further research is needed to address problems of causal inference in correlational and multivariate studies in identifying effects that can be attributed to the persuasive power of political leaders and others who attempt to influence the public. While the use of experiments is not new to studies of the effects on individuals of new information and the content of reports in the mass media, we advocate more directed and systematic effort to study the effects elites can have through the positions they take on important policy issues. Specifically, experiments should increasingly be used in tandem with other evidence in ways that can have external validity by attempting to simulate the complexity of processes of education and persuasion that can occur. While experimental studies of persuasion expose subjects to communications and information in controlled ways that do not correspond to what happens in real-world contexts, they can provide insight into what kinds of cause and effect relationships are possible. Experiments should use subjects that are representative of the public at large and expose them to some of the complexity of political communication and debate. Experimental designs should be developed to examine how multiple leaders or elites may address multiple issues, so that the public may be exposed to countervailing and conflicting messages. Perhaps most important, since experiments using national samples of adults are costly, we need efficient designs for studying these complicated possibilities of leadership and persuasion, that involve a number of possible influences at the same time. This should include also how leaders' position-taking can subsequently affect public attitudes toward these leaders. We describe how we have utilized a commonly used split-ballot design to study what can be simple or more complicated processes of influence on public opinion.

Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Abstract: The greatest shift in the global balance of power from 1945 until the end of the Cold War in 1989 occurred when China moved from being the Soviet Union's closest ally to its most hostile adversary. Realisms and liberalisms cannot account for this event. A constructivist account is offered.

Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Abstract: This paper investigates the impact on legal practice and property settlement outcomes of the new Family Law Legislation Amendment (Superannuation) Act 2001). This Act allows superannuation to be split between parties on divorce. The effects of the new legislation on the pre-existing discretionary system of allocating property on divorce were hard to predict because the Act provided no direct guidance as to whether and in what proportion superannuation should be split. We hypothesised, on the basis of previous research, that parties, their legal representatives and the courts will face considerable difficulties in applying this reform, and that various procedural, legislative and social factors will limit its impact on settlement outcomes. The paper draws on data from two studies: (1) a national survey of settlement behaviour and outcomes involving superannuation; and (2) an analysis of Australian case law where the new reforms were applied. The findings demonstrate the limited capacity of the new reform to improve divorced women’s access to superannuation on retirement. The findings illustrate the factors that facilitate and inhibit the application of pension splitting legislation, and provide insight into how complex legislative reform is ultimately translated into the settlement behaviour of divorcing couples. A ‘regulatory lens’ is applied to the discussion of these results, and questions are raised about the coherence of the new law and how this may have limited its effectiveness.