Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Review Method: Peer Reviewed
Abstract: Term-limited legislators running for final terms in state Houses win by larger margins of victory than fellow incumbents. The main source of the advantage seems to be high-quality strategic opponents, who wait for the upcoming open seat race.

Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Abstract: To date, hurtful interactions in romantic relationships have been investigated primarily through the use of retrospective self-report data. The influence of hurtful interactions over time has yet to be studied. The current investigation is among the first to examine longitudinal data for naturally emerging descriptions of hurtful interactions within romantic relationships. Access to longitudinal data enabled the researchers to measure the long-term and short-term impact of hurtful interactions on romantic relationships. The current study extends existing research by investigating the long- and short-term influence that hurtful interactions have on relational satisfaction and commitment to marriage. Results demonstrated that hurtful messages have a significant short-term impact on relational satisfaction and commitment to marriage. Additional analyses revealed that short-term commitment to marriage was a significant predictor of long-term commitment to marriage. Ultimately our findings suggest that hurtful interactions may not be as harmful to relationships as some tend to believe.

Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Abstract: Recently, attention has been given to the integration of explanations that focus on the long term factors which increase the probability of (serious) delinquency, e.g. the risk factor approach, and explanations that focus on short term factors, e.g. the situational approach (Farrington, 2003). According to the risk factor approach long term risk factors increases the probability of becoming delinquent, and a cumulation of risk factors on more than one domain, e.g. the individual, family, school or peers, increases the probability of serious delinquency. The situational approach focuses on short term risk factors, and states that the probability of committing a crime is a function of the appearance of a motivated offender, a suitable target, and the absence of supervision. Companions and use of alcohol or drugs can function as moderators. As far as we are aware, there is hardly empirical research that integrates both approaches. In the WODC Monitor Self reported Youth Crime, wave 2004, a cross-sectional study of a representative sample of Dutch youth in the ages of 10-17, data has been gathered on long term and short term risk factors. In this paper we will investigate the relation between (a cumulation of) long-term risk factors, e.g. impulsivity, weak parental supervision, delinquent friends and weak bonding with school) and short term risk factors that appeared during the most recent crime committed, e.g. supervision, companions and use of alcohol or drugs in a sub sample of 301 minor and serious delinquents. Furthermore, differences between both groups of delinquents in long and short term risk factors will be investigated. Possible mechanisms will be discussed.

Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Abstract: This paper presents some midterm research outcomes or policy recommendations of a three-year project of the National Institute of Environmental Studies (NIES) to envision a long-term target for Japan and the rest of the world. An attendant objective of this paper is to evaluate some efforts to attempt to help articulate a long-term target for the reduction of greenhouse gases (GHGs) beyond the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol (beyond 2012) especially referring to EU?s efforts.The first part of this collaborative paper will present a theoretical framework about how to look into the future international political changes aiming at setting up the parameter within which concrete policy proposals for the reduction of GHGs will be articulated. Having given the theoretical framework consisted of three major outlooks of the world--?protective regionalism,? ?globalism,? and ?global communitarianism?--, the paper will try to identify each outlook?s domestic and international policy options relating to global climate change, such as energy and industrial policies. Then, the rest of the paper will elaborate how to share the burden of reducing GHGs especially among Annex-I countries and the rest of the world, while attending to enunciating robust and feasible criteria for the allocation of long-term targets.

Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Abstract: Market based education providers may employ unique organization types sharply distinct from traditional public bureaucracies. Excluding highly individualized “mom and pop” micro-providers, we outline the key characteristics of four market based models of schooling ranging from least to greatest on a continuum of goal and practice integration: networks, corporations, cooperatives, and clans. Aside from internal integration, the four types can be distinguished by their profit or non-profit status, their internal incentives and governance, their capacity for expansion, their capacity for innovation, and most importantly, their performance. We explore these through brief case studies of the Core Knowledge Foundation, the Coalition of Essential Schools, Edison, K-12, Edvisions, the Charter School of Sedona, the KIP academies, and North Star. The Charter School of Sedona, which exists in a state where money follows parent enrollment decisions and which has taken a large share of a small market, has influenced practices at local district schools. Seemingly, the other providers have had less influence, for reasons we explore. Finally, we outline the long term prospects for these new providers to have significant impacts on public education. Clans like KIPP and North Star offer the most successful schools; yet their very quality control limits rapid expansion. Cooperatives like Edvisions and the Charter School of Sedona also succeed educationally, but their very novelty makes them difficult for public policy-makers to embrace. While businesses like Edison and K-12 can expand rapidly and thus push existing school system bureaucracies to improve, their educational success is mixed.