Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Review Method: Peer Reviewed
Abstract: This paper applies a threshold autoregression (TAR) model to a casualties time series to show that the autoregressive nature of such events depends on the level of terrorism at the time of a shock. Following a shock, persistence of heightened attacks characterizes low-terrorism regimes, but not high-terrorism regimes. Similar findings are associated with incidents with deaths, bombings with deaths, and hostage taking. In contrast, the assassinations series indicates some persistence even in the high-terrorism state, while the threats/hoaxes series displays persistence in only the high-terrorism state. For all series studied, the TAR model outperforms a standard autoregressive representation. A forecasting method is engineered based on the TAR estimates, and nicely tracks resource-using events.

Publication Type: Proceeding

Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Abstract: Now that internet has become widely available in the Netherlands, some people have taken the step to a broadband connection at home whereas others have not. The goal of this research is to obtain insights into the reasons why people adopt or reject broadband in the residential context. This investigation is done from a user perspective. Using online questionnaires, a longitudinal (2001, 2003, 2005) study was performed. Results show that three features of broadband have been reasons to adopt it over the years: high speed, always on and flat rate. Furthermore, results show that for long the most important threshold was the financial one and paradoxically financial aspects are also a trigger for adoption. This financial bottleneck has largely disappeared, as well as the physical accessibility threshold. Cognitive and technical thresholds have shown less important over the years. What remains are the internet users who are quite satisfied with their current narrowband connection. It is probably hard to convince those people of the usefulness of broadband, unless for example alternatives are no longer available.

Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Review Method: Peer Reviewed
Abstract: Democracy has been one of the fundamental achievements of the post-World War II era. Because evidence of the democratic peace exists, illiberal states are being pressured to form democracies. However, democratic consolidation, on which the democratic peace relies, remains a persistent problem of the Third World. Thus, the paradox remains that democratizing states are prone to violence which undermines peace and security. Considering that the majority of states in the international community are mixed regimes, or anocracies, this poses a problem for reducing interstate and intrastate conflict in these regimes. It is not enough to declare success with the establishment of electoral democracies, rather it is necessary to identify the political institutions that create mature democracies which validate the democratic peace. This research seeks to explain the relationship between political institutions, the level of democratization, and conflict in anocracies. Using a top-down approach to quantitatively test the years 1982-1997, this research examines the role of political institutions, such as constitutional structure, press freedom, free and fair elections, military accountability, as well as the legitimacy of the executive, legislative, and judicial branches. With theoretical grounding in literature on democratizing states (Snyder and Mansfield), the waves of democratization (Huntington, Diamond), political decay (Huntington), political development, and the democratic peace, this research suggests that there is a threshold effect regarding political institutions which must be established before democracy can be consolidated and the conflict levels can be reduced in democratizing states.

Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Abstract: This study explored whether male and female body figures were judged differently when described as fat, overweight, or obese. Participants were 193 female and 43 male college students (97% white). Obese figures were judged as largest. Additionally, Female figures were rated as fat, overweight, and obese at smaller sizes than male figures.