Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Review Method: Peer Reviewed
Abstract: There has been a notable secular decline in turnout in Canada in recent
elections, but there has been little research to date on the partisan
consequences of that decline. In this paper, we simulate various turnout rates
in the 1997 Canadian national election in Quebec and the rest of Canada based
on probabilities derived from multinomial logit estimates. In Quebec, higher
turnout is associated with greater support for the Bloc Quebecois and weaker
support for the Liberals. In the rest of Canada, higher turnout is associated
with greater support for the Liberals and weaker support for Reform. Support
for the NDP and the Progressive Conservatives is not significantly affected
across broad ranges in turnout rates. We interpret these results as support
for the conventional wisdom of turnout's effects on partisan outcomes, and
believe that our methodology offers the opportunity to investigate the probable
effect of turnout on partisan outcomes in a variety of electoral contexts where
survey data are available.

Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Abstract: Do material inducements supplied by political parties influence citizen’s ideological positions in electoral competitions? I consider this possibility with respect to a model of “turnout-buying” presented by Simeon Nichter earlier this year. I test Nichter’s (2008) model of turnout-buying in the context of local elections in Bangalore, India. Using new data I collected on voter-party linkages in a survey of 1664 Bangalore households in 2007 I encounter problems in the empirical application of Nichter’s model. Notably, citizens’ ideological positions are endogenous to whether or not they report receiving benefits from a political party. This finding varies by the types of benefits citizens report—whether they are programmatic or particularistic. I discuss the implications of endogeneity on the Stokes-Nichter formal model and I present a two-stage analysis correcting the endogeneity problem in the Bangalore case study. When the distribution of material benefits systematically influences citizen’s ideology in electoral competitions, then benefits themselves may have representational effects as well as the most analyzed effect—getting people to vote. I further discuss the implications of this finding for local elections in Bangalore, India.

Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Review Method: Peer Reviewed
Abstract: The propensity of individuals to take part in the electoral process has long been associated with a variety of contextual influences. Variations in the partisan composition of local environments have been among those factors that researchers have used to explain differences in the propensity to vote. This paper proposes to explore whether geographic variations in the homogeneity/heterogeneity of a variety of group environments contributes to an explanation of voter turnout in Erie County, New York. Using voter registration and census information, we have assembled a multilevel dataset comprised of the voting records and demographic characteristics of a sample of registered voters (N=137,012) for roughly the last decade (1996-2004). To this, we have added information on the political heterogeneity of their households (N=72,646). Finally, using data for the 985 electoral districts in Erie County, we distinguish individuals whose partisan registration conforms to that prevailing in their district and all others. Using multilevel methods (HLM) with this data, we can simultaneously estimate the independent and joint effects on turnout of a variety of the nested contexts in which individuals practice their politics. Our analysis uncovers strong evidence that the homogeneous households reinforce participatory behaviors independent of the effects of the larger context.

Supporting Publications:
Supporting Document

Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Review Method: Peer Reviewed
Abstract: This paper analyses youth voter participation by educational attainment as well as many of the current efforts to increase it. It demonstrates that many of the organizational efforts to increase youth participation are aimed at the wrong groups.

Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Abstract: Research examining the consequences of voter turnout has been mixed. While research at the local and state levels has found that greater turnout among disadvantaged groups leads to greater representation of their policy interests in government, studies examining turnout at the national level have generally failed to identify important implications of group disparities in turnout. This research examines the political implications of turnout among African Americans and improves on this literature in several important ways. First, we provide an assessment of the influence of district-level black turnout on substantive representation in the House of Representatives. Second, we introduce a new measure of substantive representation of blacks’ interests by comparing congressional voting with black public opinion, rather than assuming blacks’ preferences are simply liberal or represented by interest groups that are active in Congress on a limited number of votes. The findings provide greater insight into the quality of representation of African Americans, as well as providing insight into the mechanisms of linkage between the mass public and political elites in general.

Our paper examines the relative influence of Black turnout and Black constituency size (conceptualized in several ways) on substantive representation in Congress. The findings provide insight into the mechanisms of linkage between the mass public and political elites in general.