Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Review Method: Peer Reviewed
Abstract: Whether political institutions lead or follow public opinion is at the core of American democracy. A growing body of literature demonstrates that Court decisions influence public opinion, but some important questions remain about this relationship. Given that the public receives cues from the Court and party elites when learning about cases through the media, it is difficult to disentangle the potential effects of the two different sets of elite cues. The inability to isolate the Court�s cues from those of other political elites leaves an important puzzle: is the Court better thought of an opinion leader or agenda setter? It is possible that changes in public opinion following Court decisions result from the cues sent by the justices to individuals capable of revising their beliefs, which fits an opinion-leading role. Alternatively, the Court�s may be better understood as an agenda setter. By putting an issue on the agenda or raising its salience, the Court stimulates an elite debate on the topic. The ensuing non-Court elite debate may be driving public opinion rather than the cues provided by the justices. To gain leverage on this puzzle, I am conducting an original experiment using a nationally representative online sample, which is funded by a research grant from Ramapo College. The results of this study should shed additional light on the Court�s ability to shape public opinion and its role in American politics more broadly.

Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Abstract: Who do Mexicans trust the most to guide their political actions: opinion leaders or their own predispositions? While opinion leaders “filter” information and guide media debates, political party identification is the perceptual screen through which individuals assess new information and understand politics. Thus, when retrieving new information, individuals face two strong opposite forces: leaders’ opinion and their own biases. Using the 4th National Survey of Political Culture and Civic Practices (ENCUP) 2008, carried out by Mexico’s Secretary of Interior, I will observe which one of these two forces shapes individuals’ political and civic attitudes the most. Moreover, it will show which opinion leaders are preferred by each group of partisans and independents, as well as their political and civic attitudes. My research will not only uncover opinion leaders’ traits regarding political and civic cultures, but by explaining the determinants of both partisans and independents’ sources of political and civic attitudes in Mexico, it will suggest possible lines of action to design public policies that may help to strengthen Mexican’s political culture and civic practices.

Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Abstract: A conventional wisdom derived from the two-step flow theory suggests that opinion leaders have great influence on their followers. However, it has been difficult for social scientists to measure and describe the extent to which political opinion leader influence voters, especially when voters today access multiple information sources like communication networks and self-selected news media. This paper fills this gap by using agent-based modeling to represent what the two-step flow theory describes about opinion leader influence and refines the theory based on the findings. First, opinion leader influence does not diffuse to the public without homogeneous communication networks. Second, opinion leader influence usually does not diffuse widely to the public because it inevitably faces resistance from self-strengthening communication networks.

Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript

Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Review Method: Peer Reviewed
Abstract: American Public Opinion Toward China
----Policy Gaps between Leaders and Citizens
Numerous studies have documented the persistent existence of foreign
policy gaps between leaders and citizens (Almond 1960; Hinckley 1992;
Holsti and Rosenau 1988, 1990; Kull and Destler 1999, 2001; Page and
Barabas, 2000; Riely 1975, 1979, 1983, 1987, 1991, 1995, 1999; Wittkopf
1987). Moreover, scholars have identified the various factors that may
be responsible for the opinion gaps (Herbst1998; Jacobs and Shapiro
2002; Kull, Destler, and Ramsy 1997; Kull and Destler 2002). These
studies focus almost exclusively on broad foreign policy issues such as
foreign policy orientation, foreign aid, UN peacekeeping, and defense
spending. However, few studies examine American public opinion about a
foreign country (Kusnitz 1984; Eytan 1987). This study fills up this
research blind spot by examining policy gaps between American leaders
and citizens in their opinions about China.
Two conditions must be met before we can study public opinion about a
foreign country. First, this country should be salient enough to the
American people so that they have meaningful attitudes on issues
related to this country. Second, there should be regular surveys that
tap public opinion about this country. China meets the two conditions
more than satisfactorily, if not perfectly. A few of the more recent
examples will show the salience of China to most Americans: close
cooperation during the Second World War, post-1949 hostility, the
Korean War, China’s admission to the U.N., Nixon’s landmark visit to
China, Tian’anmen Square incident, dispute over growing U.S. trade
deficit, U.S. bombing of Chinese embassy in Belgrade, and airplane
collision over the South China Sea. Moreover, my own research shows
that on average China gets a front-page story in the New York Times
every five days (Xie 2003).
Meanwhile, the major survey organizations in this country have asked
hundreds of questions about China. A LexisNexis search of “China” under
“Survey Question” shows that the Gallup Organization has asked its
respondents 749 China-related questions from 1937 to 2003 and Harris
300 questions from 1963 to 2003. In its quadrennial survey starting
from 1974, the Chicago Council on Foreign Relations (CCFR) has asked a
sample of political leaders and a sample of the general public dozens
of questions pertaining to China. These surveys provide us with
excellent data to study public opinion about China.
In our study, we use the CCFR data for two reasons. First, it is
regularly conducted every four years. Second, the same questions are
repeated across surveys. We first look at the aggregate trend of elite
and citizen opinion about China, particularly the size and direction of
gaps between them. Then we choose a single year (1998) for
individual-level analysis of elite and citizen opinion. We try to pin
down the determinants of individual opinion about China. Due to the
limitations of the data, we can only test our hypotheses
on the causal influence of age, education, partisanship, and ideology
Finally we will discuss our findings and their policy
implications.