Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Abstract: I use the random assignment of induction priority in the Vietnam draft lotteries of 1969, 1970 and 1971 to measure the effect of a son’s draft status on the voting behavior of his parents in the 1972 presidential election. I use this near-randomized natural experiment to test theories of self interest and political behavior. Analyzing the subset of towns from which men were killed in the Vietnam War prior to the 1972 election, I find a 7.6 percentage point average treatment effect among all parents and a 17.1 percentage point effect among parents who are confirmed to have been registered voters in 1968 prior to the lottery drawings. In towns from which there were no casualties, I find no effect of a son’s draft lottery status on the likelihood that his parents voted in 1972. Contrary to general research on the role of self interest in political judgments, my findings support the notion that political behavior can be motivated by self interest when individuals have been primed to weigh their options in terms of self interest. This research also contributes a unique measure of the role of self interest on political behavior where previous literature has focused primarily on opinion formation.